Well, things didn't go exactly as planned. I take that back, they went exactly as planned right up until I crashed
I was riding pretty well and have been told I was in 8th when I crashed in turn 2. The rider behind me tells me I spun the rear, and got the bike sideways. I slid on my right side, and then rolled a bunch when I hit the grass. The bike did some serious tumbling, although I honestly would have expected more damage. I think I'm lucky that the exhaust and the fairing stay took the impacts rather than the forks!
rear tire at some grass
Bike landed on the exhaust, but somehow didn't bend the sub-frame (that I can tell).
The exhaust snapped at the back end, and then rotated down on the bracket. I believe the broken end of the exhaust is what did this to my tire.
Clearly the fairing stay and windscreen were not built to be load-bearing components
I walked away with a small bruise on my right ring finger, a sore toe on my right foot, and a purple left butt-cheek. Definitely feeling really lucky.