Cold track is the is the key part of this that isn't being mentioned. If it's 45 degrees out, bright sunshine, and no wind you are going to have a whole lot better grip that you would have if it's overcast and breezy. It doesn't matter how hot your tires are, the track and the tires together determine your level of grip. The way to know how much grip you have is by the feedback the tires are giving you.
I'm really surprised nobody has mentioned the term "feel". Regardless of the conditions you only push the tires as far as they will let you go. One really solid reason for picking a tire and sticking with it is so you can more easily learn what the tires are telling you. If you go out and do three laps to heat the tires and call it good to start going fast, you're likely going to end up on your head. You pick up the pace as your grip increases with the heating of the tires, and the limiting factors are the tires you are running and the condition of the track. You don't base this on how many laps you've done, you base it on what you are feeling as you are riding.
With a cold track the grip is only going to be a certain amount. The feedback you are getting from the tires will tell you how much this is. Really good riders can maximize this and thus go faster. The morning sessions at a track are going to have less grip when it's cool or cold; this should improve as the track warms through the day (assuming that it gets warmer, the sun comes out, etc.) In the summer the first three or four sessions will probably offer better grip, and the later afternoon sessions at a track will have less grip if it's scorching hot.
One thing that might seem counter intuitive is that in colder temps you don't want to use the softer compounds due to cold tearing. Pick a more durable tire, heat them really well on your warmers, and very gradually pick up the pace as the the tires come in.
In response to one of the earlier posts I'd always rather be on a race tire regardless of temperature.